A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
